The Fallout of the Draft Free Fall

An interesting dynamic is taking place in New York.

No not the whole Tebow thing, we’ll deal with him when he has a team to deal with.

Instead we’re looking at the potential future quarterback, Geno Smith, who reportedly has fired his agent only a few days removed from the 2013 NFL Draft. PFT has a good recap, and similar opinion, of the story right here if you’d rather read their work as opposed to mine, but I thought it would be interesting to compare a couple of situations.

Undoubtedly many of you have seen the ESPN 30 for 30 “From Elway to Marino” concerning one of the greatest quarterback draft classes and the fall Marino took during the draft. I find Marino and Smith’s situations as exquisite parallels to each other.

Both considered top prospects in their class, Marino was actually expected to be the top quarterback going into his final year at Pittsburgh but had a down season despite winning more games. Smith put up particularly gaudy numbers his final year in what is considered a gimmicky offense at West Virginia.

Both players went to New York with the expectation of going high in the draft and found themselves waiting for quite some time. Geno Smith was not drafted until round 2 in fact.

Like Aaron Rodgers, everyone cites this as an opportunity to gain motivation against the league, a trait Marino says he didn’t think about, but it is hard to imagine a personality like his not taking his draft plummet personally.

What I find interesting is how Geno Smith has handled it. Thus far, I have not heard anything particularly negative about his work ethic, attitude, or personality (aside from that one war-monger scout who ripped Cam Newton and Geno Smith in such grotesquely personal ways), and yet his immediate reaction to this plummet gives me pause.

The night of the draft it was reported that Geno Smith had left the green room when Baltimore or Dallas was on the clock. Over the evening it was reported that Smith had decided to leave New York.

Now I understand those moves. He’s a kid in a very, very difficult situation. Obviously he expected to be drafted in the 1st round, likely he thought of himself as the first quarterback to be drafted in this draft. The last thing he wants to do is sit around potentially 25 more picks in the second round with cameras cutting to him before and after every ‘potential landing spot’ selects someone else.

What I don’t get is the agent firing. PFT speculates that he believed in himself so much that he refused to listen to his agent, whose job it is to adequately prepare him for where he will be drafted. The other option they outline, is that the agent did not do that job adequately.

This is a very damning situation to one of these two parties. Perhaps the agent and Smith were elaborately smoke screened through this whole process, in which case Geno Smith is quite right to fire his agent if he had been telling him that Smith was a top 15 pick, but for the agency responsible for determining that position they failed massively.

On the other hand, if they had been telling him that he was more likely to go late in the 1st at best, with the potential to slip into day two while Geno Smith continued to believe pundits, mock drafters (like myself), and friends who must have been telling him much higher, then this firing is very bad for his image.

It’s hard to know the truth, and both sides (so far) are handling it with class, not elaborating on the circumstances or reasons behind it. Only few individuals know the truth in this situation. His agents will know what they were telling him, and Geno will know what he was hearing from them. It is also likely that most teams know whether they were using him as a smokescreen (as likely Buffalo was to protect their interest in EJ Manuel). We likely won’t know for some time what the real situation is, but it is an interesting dynamic to keep an eye on.

Of note, the agency in question is Select Sports Group.

2013 NFL Mock Draft: The Mock Of Integrity

I’ve adopted a more Mike Mayock and Greg Cosell approach to mock drafts of late, not really starting to place players until much later. The number of changes people like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay do does not really help the process of guessing where players fit until all the rumors subside. In that respect, it’s more important to maintain a board of players perceived talent level and adjust it as information comes in.

I have done that this year and done more work for these prospects than perhaps in any past year, a fact that I am quite proud of, though by no means would I classify myself as a true talent evaluator due to lack of real coaches tape and knowledge of what NFL teams really covet. For those aspects, I treat myself as a GM, and the general media draft-niks as scouts reporting players to me. This gives me a sense of where to position players on a large board, as well as start to feel out who certain teams might prefer.

My hope is that this will result in a more meaningful mock. I have also speculated on trades. Some I feel strongly about, others are a result of players I believe teams covet.

I will also be doing a live twitter mock on Thursday. As each team comes to the clock, I will attempt to project their pick, or project a trade. I feel this may be a true mock in the sense that it will require a firm knowledge of the prospects as well as team needs and analysis of team abilities to maneuver. I am certain I will be wrong and look forwards to the surprises.

And without further ado, the NFLAm 2013 Mock

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

I am speculating that Brandon Albert and his agent are putting up much more of a private fuss than their public image about the potential move to LG or RT. He is a capable LT in the NFL if not elite. I believe Joeckel is an upgrade here, and that Albert will be shipped off to Miami. Joeckel is the pick over Fisher for me because Andy Reid is a passer first and Joeckel’s pass protection is phenomenal. Gruden told him that he could “block out the sun” if he wanted.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

While most people believe the Jaguars will select Eric Fisher here, I believe Gus Bradley is searching for a more physical, fast defense. He has said that Pete Carroll taught him that team speed is crucial, and has seen how drafting those types of players creates problems for opposing teams. Jordan is somewhat raw when it comes to rushing the quarterback, but may have the potential to match up with “Joker” type players such as Gronkowski. He is phenomenal in pass coverage for a linebacker.

3. Oakland Raiders – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

The rumors that the only team not looking to move is Oakland say a lot about how much they like at least 3 players in this draft. My guess is they look at Floyd as a potential Warren Sapp or Geno Atkins. His pass rushing potential as a 3-technique is a perfect fit for Oakland.

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

While most mocks project Eric Fisher here if not at number 2, I believe Chip Kelly will continue to put size on his defense. While Andy Reid sought faster players for the Wide-9, Kelly wants bulk up front to allow his linebackers to move. He has spent a large portion of free agency working towards that goal. Lotulelei projects as both a 5-technique pass rushing end or a 0-tech. He has a little Vince Wilfork in him in that he can collapse the pocket from that position, and his jump is excellent. The question might be better focused on if he can stand up two blockers in the run game like Wilfork. If he can’t, he can make a living on the end.

5. Detroit Lions – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

With several of their seasons derailed by Matt Stafford injuries, and a large void at LT in the wake of Jeff Backus’ retirement, the Lions have a large need at tackle. Fisher is very sound both run and pass, which will help them work more towards a balanced attack that does not have Stafford dropping back as much. As one draft-nik put it, “It’s the Matt Millen era all over if the Lions take anyone here besides LT or DB”

6. TRADE San Diego Chargers via Cleveland Browns – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

The Chargers move up here to select Johnson, the last top flight left tackle in the first round. They know that Rivers needs time to throw and their line has been atrocious. Gaither, while talented, cannot stay healthy and gets complacent with big money deals. The Chargers, I project, send their 1st round pick (11th overall) and either their 3rd this year (76) or 4th (110) and a 4th next year( 1 and 3 or 1,4, and 4). Cleveland has shown a willingness to drop in the draft more recently to accumulate picks while finding decent talent. They’re in a perfect position here with a limited number of perceived elite tackles in the draft and several teams behind them desperate for one.

7. Arizona Cardinals – Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

The Cardinals are likely upset to lose Johnson, and could make the move up one slot to take him if they really like him, but I believe that Bruce Arians is comfortable with the talent they have currently, and can find value later at tackle. I know, however, that Arians likes to stretch the field, and that with a 5’9″ T.Y. Hilton he attacked the NFL last season. Tavon Austin is wildly more talented than Hilton with similar styles. Cosell called him “cartoonish” when watching him, and two seconds of watching him vs Clemson is enough to verify that remark.

8. Buffalo Bills – Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

The loss of Andy Levitre to the Titans leaves a hole on their offensive line. Cooper has a higher upside, and some positional versatility. He could potentially play center or guard, though I believe guard is likely his best spot. Buffalo is a team that I believe could be interested in moving back into the first for a quarterback, either Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley.

9. New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

Rex Ryan has been long searching for a pass rusher for this team. I’m torn between Mingo and Jarvis Jones here because Mingo flashes burst and speed on a terrifying scale, while Jones is a much more polished pass rusher at this moment. Both have a very high ceiling. I’ve also heard reports that Rex Ryan loves both. Mingo for his raw talent and Jones because of his Suggs-like skills.

10. Tennessee Titans – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

While the Titans have already signed Andy Levitre to bolster their run game, former offensive lineman and Titans coach Mike Munchak has to love watching Warmack dominate in the run game. They have Chris Johnson and signed Shonn Greene and giving both of them this mauler in the middle should bring this unit back to its 2,000 yard glory.

11. TRADE Atlanta Falcons via Cleveland Browns – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Here’s the thing. I’m confident this is a trade that could be done. These two have partnered big deals in the past, and in this scenario it would likely be the 30th this year, a 1st round pick next year and a fourth, or potentially the 30th, 60th, 127th and maybe a 2nd next year. (30, 127, 1st or 30, 60,127, 2nd). Either way, the Falcons have the horses to make a move of this caliber again, and the desperation to win now. Here’s the problem. I’m not sure who they would move up for. They have a huge hole at corner after losing Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes, so Milliner is the most likely option after Kaepernick torched them. Likewise they lack an elite pass rusher, but I don’t see the name here for them to get. If they like Richardson (DT) or value Jones or Carradine as an end maybe they are the pick. There’s also a chance they’re looking at Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame as an heir to Tony Gonzalez and match-up nightmare. Many options.

12. Miami Dolphins – D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

Mike Mayock and Greg Cosell both have Hayden rated as their best corner in this draft. He’s likely the most ready to start now as a man cover corner. Most people agree his near-death experience was a fluke, so the injury concerns should be minimal and the Dolphins have a pressing need at corner since losing Sean Smith and trading Vontae Davis. If they don’t move to secure Brandon Albert, I expect this pick is D.J. Fluker out of Alabama.

13. New York Jets via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

While the Jets would love to address some of their offensive woes at this point, passing up on Vaccaro would be crazy. Rex Ryan will see glimmers of Ed Reed with tackling ability and his versatility will also intrigue Ryan. Offense will have to wait as Rex builds a defense to stop New England.

14. Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

The Panthers have long been rumored to like Richardson’s pass rushing ability from the interior and at worst case should be able to snag Sylvester Williams if Richardson goes before this point. In either case, they need to get a big body on the inside in this draft.

15. New Orleans Saints – Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

Rob Ryan, on the other hand, will need a pass rusher for this new 34 scheme. Jones doesn’t test well, but on film he’s a terror and probably the most complete pass rusher in this draft. This is a steal for the Saints at 15.

16. St. Louis Rams – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

This is the first time I’ve moved Hunter ahead of Patterson, but the buzz seems to follow that line. While Patterson, with the ball in his hands, is a menace, Hunter is the more polished receiver right now, with incredible upside. He could potentially be a number 1 type guy which Bradford desperately needs.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Pittsburgh needs a big press corner who can compete for the ball in the air. With Dick LeBeau’s zone blitz scheme generating a lot of errant passes, Rhodes should thrive going up and attacking the ball. His man coverage skills are a little lacking, but that shouldn’t hurt his stock in Pittsburgh.

18. Dallas Cowboys – Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

The Cowboys need to transition to a 43 front and will need someone who can collapse the pocket from a 3-technique. Williams is a big man, but very light on his feet. He has shown flashes of ability to collapse the pocket and his burst through the hole to disrupt plays in the backfield will appeal to Monte Kiffin.

19. New York Giants – Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU

I’m less high on Ansah than most due to his lack of serious production. The potential is there and if there is one team that can coach up a defensive end it’s the New York Giants. Ansah is considered a boom or bust type player, but the Giants have enough of a rotation to allow him to develop while utilizing his skills in ideal situations.

20. TRADE San Francisco via Chicago Bears – Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

The 49ers have made it known they’re looking to move up for a specific player. While I think they’d like Vaccaro, they may not be able to swing that. Cyprien is a good second option. They were torched in the playoffs by Ryan and Flacco and are definitely looking to improve their secondary. They’ll send the 31st pick and the 95th pick to make this jump, or if the Bears are a little greedy, the 76th pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals -D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

The Bengals would really like Vaccaro or Cyprien to fall, but the 49ers are aggressive and snag him before they can get to him. Instead they’ll look to replace Andre Smith with Fluker, who has more versatility and potential than Andre Smith, and if they do resign him, can slide inside to make this physical group even stronger.

22. St. Louis Rams – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

While the Rams would like a big DT or S to fall to them, snagging a very versatile linebacker here is a solid consolation prize. Ogletree is a converted safety, so his reaction time to the point of attack is lacking, but he makes up for it in speed and burst. He also can cover most any tight end which is a position that is increasingly causing match up issues in the NFL.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Keenan Allen, WR, California

The Vikings signed Greg Jennings, but he is a stop-gap solution with the injury bug. Keenan Allen has drawn Reggie Wayne comparisons and could develop that type of chemistry with Christian Ponder. He runs good routes with solid hands, both benefits for a young quarterback.

24. Indianapolis Colts – Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

I think Chuck Pagano will see some Haloti Ngata in Williams with his position versatility and brute strength. He can rush from a 5-technique or play a 0, both of which are needs for the Colts.

25. Minnesota Vikings – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame

This is a reach for me personally, but I will defer to the buzz about Te’o not slipping out of the first. Rick Spielman like’s his Golden Domers and selects another one to fill a big hole at inside linebacker here.

26. Green Bay Packers – Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

When the Bears moved down, Eifert was put back in play. Not wanting to face him twice a year, and knowing Jermichael Finely is on the ropes with them, they’ll snag Eifert to give Aaron Rodgers another vertical weapon.

27. Houston Texans – Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The Texans need to help Andre Johnson, and an explosive Patterson will make sure defenses cannot key on Andre alone. Bubble screens and slants will pull coverage up, allowing Johnson to work deep.

28. Denver Broncos – Cornellius Carradine, Florida State

Carradine is the better of the two defensive ends from Florida State in my opinion. He drew the double teams and showed more consistent pressure than Werner, who is another very raw athlete. The Broncos would also like to continue to support Von Miller with a threat from the opposite side.

29. TRADE Buffalo Bills via New England Patriots – Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

Buffalo sends New England either a 1st next year (which the Patriots have been known to find ways to get) or their second, a 3rd, and maybe a 6th this year (1 (2014) or 42 & 73 & 167). The Patriots are looking to accumulate picks in this draft, which makes them more likely for me to accept a little less this year than usual. With the flat talent level, I think two mid round picks might appeal to them. Buffalo meanwhile snags their quarterback and a top guard to protect him.

30. Cleveland Browns via Atlanta Falcons – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

The Falcons already sent this pick to the Browns who have managed to work their way down the draft again, securing several picks and getting a quarterback more suited Norv Turner’s style.

31. Chicago Bears – Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State

If the Bears wish to continue to run their Tampa 2 style defense, they need to replace Urlacher’s drop back speed. Enter Brown who is one of the fastest linebackers in this draft and can even cover some receivers.

32.  TRADE Philadelphia Eagles via Baltimore Ravens – E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State

The Ravens continue their strategy of dropping out of the first round by swapping the 32nd pick for the 35th and the 100th pick. The Eagles snag a quarterback Chip Kelly has liked since high school and is a good fit for his offense. They get him at minimal cost for 5 years and can now shop Foles to a team that missed out on a quarterback.

2013 Draft Preview

Before posting my mock draft for this year, I thought it would be good to do a run down of the potential story lines that will develop out of this years drafts.

Quarterbacks

I cannot remember a draft so devoid of top talent at the quarterback position, and yet I also am suspecting that there will be a large number of them taken on Thursday, more than most would suspect.

Let’s break down my reasons.

Firstly, the new CBA provides all first round draft picks with potentially a 5 year contract which is not renegotiable. This means that any player taken in the first is good for 5 years “on the cheap”. Look at teams like San Francisco, Seattle, Washington, and the Colts. These are teams that can put money into resigning vets and free agent acquisitions because they know they don’t have a $100 million quarterback on their roster. Meanwhile, teams like Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are struggling to work around the cap, strapped by big deals that will get even bigger down the road. Having 5 years of maneuverability could be very important for teams who think they’re only one signal caller away.

Secondly, there are no teams in the bottom half of the draft who are really looking for a quarterback, much less a developmental one. Houston and maybe New England come to mind, but Houston has very pressing needs and a limited window, while New England has already selected Ryan Mallett. This means that there will likely be teams willing to move back for equal talent at less of a price for high drafting teams looking to move back into the first. It’s a common draft practice that should be even easier this year with the flat talent level that is perceived by most draft-niks.

Essentially, I’m guessing between 3 and 5 quarterbacks will be selected in this first round. Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, E.J. Manuel, Mike Glennon and maybe even a Landry Jones, if Bill Polian is to be believed, could wind up being called Thursday.

Falling Injuries

 I’ve been hearing reports of players potentially falling farther than expected due to injuries that have not been released to the public. Only NFL teams have access to the combine medical check and re-check, so it’s hard to speculate who those could be.

Jarvis Jones has the well documented spinal fusion, but it seems most teams are open to selecting him without reservation.

Star Lotulelei reportedly checked out, but the heart scare could be enough to scare teams off longer than his talent demands.

D.J. Hayden had a ‘freak’ injury that nearly killed him (and reportedly does kill 95% – 99% of individuals that would suffer it), and has had limited time to showcase his skills since. Teams might be worried about his ability to handle NFL level hits if something like this occurred in practice.

Darius Slay, it was reported this morning, tore his meniscus during his pro day. This could cause teams to hold off a little longer on him if they’re worried he won’t be able to start week 1.

Manti Te’o

How much explanation do you need here? Kiper and McShay have him going before 20, and not falling out of the first, while several other respected evaluators rate him as a mid to late 2nd prospect. I find it hard to see him falling that far, but also have no idea how the quarterbacks will finally play out. Maybe a big surge pushes him into the 2nd.

Who is the best Wideout?

There are about 5 first round talent level wide receivers in this class. I say first round because they are probably in part of the top 35 players in this class more than they are elite prospects, but it will be interesting to see how teams evaluate Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen. Throw a Quinton Patton in the mix and you could see 6.

The Death of the Running Back

It has been a long, long time since a draft occurred without a running back selected in the first round. This year could be such a year. Eddie Lacy is generally regarded as the top player at that position with Marcus Lattimore widely viewed as a potential sleeping pro bowl player, but the needs don’t quite line up. The Rams pick late and could use a replacement to Steven Jackson, while Green Bay and Cincinnati both would like a work horse like Lacy. With so many other players on the board perceived as more talented, it will be hard to say if Lacy will make the cut.

2013 Free Agent Preview: Defense

For me, the looming defensive player free agency looks a little thinner. A wealth of defensive backs were cut recently, bolstering the number, but when it comes to defensive line and linebacker depth… well it looks thin.

Defensive Line

Cliff Avril and Paul Kruger headline this group with a couple other names being locked up (Michael Johnson, CIN and Henry Melton, CHI). Both of these guys come with some risks. For me, neither player is marquee guy. If I were an NFL GM, and depending on the situation, I would likely lean towards a Jonathan Abraham or Dwight Freeney to solve my pass rushing needs. Kruger is a situational pass rusher who had a decent year against the run, but has never flourished in that role. If a team is to invest in him he needs to be in a role that will be conducive to his talents, ie rushing the passer.

Avril is more balanced, but is less of a pass rusher at his best and worked with a much better defensive line group. Suh by himself takes a lot of heat off of everyone else.

Beyond those top two, Freeney and Abraham still have talent available for teams looking for a short-term solution. Ricky Jean Francois from San Francisco is a versatile 3-4 guy with excellent run stuffing abilities. The Ravens have been reportedly interested in him, but likely lack the cap room to make a push for him. Mike DeVito is another 3-4 end with some pass rushing skills that has already heard from several teams. Terrence Knighton is the biggest guy in free agency, a mountain of a tackle that could potentially move to a 3-4 nose tackle role.

Linebackers

The inside linebacker group has some solid names in it. Dannell Ellerbe is riding his playoff performance into what looks like a monster contract (apparently seeking Lawrence Timmons money). Jasper Brinkley has been sporadic but has plenty of talent for lesser price. Rey Maualuga has a big name, but his play has been average on a very talented defense. The Bengals would reportedly like to keep him around however. There’s a couple older names on the board too – Bart Scott, Brian Urlacher, and Keith Brooking could have some potential.

Sleepers for me include Barrett Ruud for a Tampa 2 scheme. Gerald McRath is another guy who has a lot of potential in a new scheme.

Cornerbacks

Plenty of corner backs are in this market. Top names include Aqib Talib, Sean Smith, Mike Jenkins, and Cary Williams. All have some defects and are scheme dependent, but in the right situation they could excel. Talib is probably the best of the bunch, but the Patriots are more concerned about his work ethic with a long-term contract. Smith is likely the best press cover corner. Jenkins and Williams are solid coverage guys, but probably number 2 corners at best.

My favorite of this class is Antoine Cason for his elite ball skills (11 picks so far), and in a high pressure defense could thrive on that ability. He’s also played almost every game his entire career and is solid if not spectacular. Could be a very good number 2 guy with potential to be a top corner if the pass rush is good enough.

Superbowl hero Tracy Porter is back on the market, but he’s been floating around the league and likely will see less suitors this time around. Aaron Ross, Darius Butler, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are all high draft picks with a lot of potential.

Safeties

The two best options here were probably Jarius Byrd and William Moore, but both were retained by their teams. Now there is a slew of older players such as Ed Reed, Charles Woodson, Nate Clements, and Adrian Wilson that could intrigue some teams on short-term contracts.

Kenny Phillips is a guy I like a lot, but has a long injury history and will have to convince a team to overlook that. LaRon Landry is a physical beast, but a massive coverage liability. His brother Dawan brings a lot of experience, but not a very impressive skill set (speed is lacking in particular).

Another interesting safety is O.J. Atogwe, who was a big name guy a couple of years back and has kind of disappeared. His talent is pretty intriguing for me.

2013 Free Agent Preview

With the franchise tags having been applied, it’s time to take a look and see the top players at each position and their grade. We’ll break it down position by position and speculate potential landing places for some of them.

Quarterback

The quarterback market is remarkably thin…. incredibly thin. Made only worse by the perception that the upcoming draft is equally weak at this most critical position. The best player hitting the market this year might be Jason Campbell. He’s got a wealth of starting experience, but has never really put all the talent he has together. Quarterback needy teams could look to him as a stop-gap option while they groom a rookie.

There’s also a plethora of former high draft picks – Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, David Carr, etc. Most of these guys have had their second and third shots and are likely career backups at this point, but with the read option growing, anyone with some mobility might be interesting as either a backup or a change of pace type of quarterback. Young’s experience with the option in particular, or Josh Johnson’s excellent combination of arm strength and speed will likely find them some landing spots.

Running back

The running back position is fairly deep in talent this year. Steven Jackson could be the biggest name, but has a lot of tread on the tires. Atlanta looks poised to make a play for him, where he could be an excellent addition to an already potent offense. Reggie Bush and Felix Jones bring a lot of potential to the table, particularly Jones whose only concern is his ability to stay healthy. Reggie Bush could be a devastating addition to a spread concept offense like New England, but I haven’t heard a lot of reports of that pairing. Shonn Greene was the horse in New York for a couple of years, but never really broke out. He could find work as a complimentary back. Similarly, Mendenhall couldn’t keep the starting gig in Pittsburgh, but also has some off field running-of-the-mouth syndrome to deal with.

Wide Receiver

Another good group in this years free agency is the wide out group. With the draft seemingly not containing a wealth of prospects, the free agency group looks that much better. A short list: Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, Braylon Edwards, and Steve Breaston. These guys should get decent contracts, particularly the top four.

Wallace will have offers across the board and join a line of ex-Steeler WRs who have defected for big money deals. Jennings is a bit old but is such a polished receiver that he’ll find a sizable market. Miami features to be in the mix for both, as well as the Vikings who are looking for a reliable target to see if Ponder is truly their man.

Wes Welker’s best fit is in New England, but the Patriots (for whatever reason) don’t seem very interested in retaining him.

Amendola is the Ram’s top wideout and has been productive if unspectacular and should find a good market for his services.

Another interesting name is now ex-Giant receiver Ramses Barden (a favorite of mine I admit), who has great size (6’6′ 224) He got stuck behind Manningham and Nicks and then the pre-season star Victor Cruz, but with all those elite guys working with him might be worth kicking the tires. Plus that size never hurts for a WR.

Tight Ends

The tight end group has some former big names,. but doesn’t really bring the wow factor in years past. Jared Cook might be biggest name because he was angling for a WR/TE tag like Jermichael Finley did last year. He’s got a great combination of size and speed and already reports link the Bears to him (who bailed on the tight end position for Martz’ offense).

Behind him I like Martellus Bennett. Large bodied tight end with blocking skills and excellent hands, he could shine if given an opportunity to headline instead of splitting time as he did in Dallas and New York.

Another New York product on the market is Dustin Keller, who languished behind Mark Sanchez and the pitiful New York Jets offensive line. He has some elite potential and could blossom if given the chance. A couple other good names: Fred Davis, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Kevin Boss.

Offensive Line

This is the cream of the free agency crop this year. The number of top offensive linemen available is stunning to me. Let’s start at tackle. First overall pick Jake Long is set to hit the market, and while he never lived up to his Joe Thomas comparisons, he is still a reliable pass blocking left tackle, with decent run game potential. He might shift to the right side at his next location, but there are too many teams in need of tackle help for him not to make a decent pay (see Arizona, Oakland, Indianapolis and maybe Kansas City).

Behind him, Sebastian Vollmer is still available from New England. I don’t expect him to leave New England, but certainly will entertain offers from other teams. Bryant McKinnie is going to test the waters of free agency. His playoff run proved he’s still a capable left tackle, but has very, very notorious off-season work ethic issues. He should see a decent salary, but not nearly as big of a market for his services.

Right tackle seems even more wealthy than left, with Andre Smith headlining the group. While Hard Knocks showed a rough start to his NFL career, he has since developed into a mauler of a run blocking right tackle.

Gosder Cherilus, Phil Loadholt, Sam Baker, and Jermon Bushrod are all available as well. The last two might be left tackles, but I think their best location is on the right side in a pass first scheme, which there are plenty of in the NFL. All should see some excellent deals in free agency.

Past them we still have Chad Clifton, Sean Locklear, Jamaal Brown, Max Starks, King Dunlap, and Winston Justice – all with good potential but have struggled in their careers.

At guard the top of the list is Andy Levitre and Louis Vasquez. Both have become excellent guards and should see good markets for teams in need of some run blockers. Eben Britton should see some value for his versatility and his high draft grade coming out.

At center, reliable Todd McClure and Dan Koppen will get a lot of looks. Another favorite of mine is Jason Brown who thrived in Baltimore and languished in St. Louis. If he can convince a team that Baltimore was his true potential (and I think he handles 34 nose tackles better than most in the NFL) then he should find another home as a G or C.

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We’ll do defense next post, where there is again a decent amount of talent, but more competition against incoming rookie potentials.

Big Money Contracts

We haven’t talked about… we’ll much recently, but the story dominating the news of late has been Joe Flacco’s impending big money deal.

Reports indicate agent Joe Linta is seeking top quarterback money, while the Ravens are hesitant to give him such a deal, particularly with cap concerns as they stand in  Baltimore.

The most recent development is the reported “taking one for the team” contract extension Tom Brady just signed. Let’s dispel those rumors right now. Brady took a significant cash bonus now to drop his cap number. Brady is still getting his money, just in a more cap friendly way. This allows the Patriots to be aggressive in free agency if they like a player out there *cough cough* Ed Reed *cough cough*.

Flacco meanwhile has been getting blasted in Baltimore for not “taking a discount” to help the team. This is a ridiculous notion. The man just won a Superbowl on an expiring contract. The proverbial gamble played by player and team now has to be paid by the Ravens. You don’t underpay a player for doing exactly what you ask him to do.

First things first. I will put the odds that the Ravens non-exclusively franchise Flacco at about 10%. Likewise, if they do that, I’ll put the odds that Flacco signs with another team at about 2%. He fits the scheme and system in Baltimore and going to Cleveland, Arizona, New York, where ever is not an ideal situation, but money can move mountains so to speak.

Secondly, the Ravens are already over 16 mil on their offer. This is because they came to Flacco with a top 5 contract just before the 2012 season and he turned it down. This means that the contract negotiations are somewhere between 16 and 21 mi. The potential cap hit there is huge. If we look to Drew Bree’s contract, which guaranteed 40 million as a base, Flacco is likely expecting guarantees in that ball park.

The rub here is the situation that the Saints currently find themselves in. Drew Brees’ contract has cap hits of 17.4, 18.4, 26.4, and 27.4 up until 2016.  Those are massive numbers to carry with a 123 mil salary cap. Teams have been building these massive contracts for quarterbacks with the assumption that the salary cap will continually jump, but the almost stagnant cap (it will increase by 2.4 mil this year reportedly), has resulted in a much higher percentage of the cap being occupied by one player than originally intended. The Ravens are aware of this situation and currently attempting to predict the cap 5-7 years down the road to create a team friendly contract that still pays Flacco market value.

Another situation is the likely restructuring that Flacco will undergo in any contract of this magnitude. The Steelers have been restructuring contracts for years, resulting in the loss of players like Mike Wallace, a player many teams covet for his talents. The Steelers desire to keep certain veterans continues to cost them promising younger talent, which is a situation the Ravens apparently wish to avoid. The Ravens prefer to sign long-term deals with players that “will finish out their contracts” as Ozzie Newsome stated.

With a major cap crushing contract that will likely need to be restructured repeatedly (like Ben Roethlisberger’s is and Drew Brees’ likely will be), the Ravens need to expect to do the same and plan other contracts accordingly.

This brings me to how I would approach this contract situation. I am not an NFL GM, but it’s always a fun exercise for me to approach situations as if I was.

Taking Drew Brees’ recent deal as a bench mark we have a 5 year contract with salaries of 3 mil, 9.75 mil, 10.75 mil, 18.75 mil, and 19.75 mil. He also received a 37 mil signing bonus which is spread out as a 7.4 mil over the 5 years.

His cap numbers then are 10.4, 17.4, 18.4, 26.4, and 27.4. In the world of the NFL, contracts only go higher, not lower. Which means we should expect at least a 40 mil signing bonus at least. This means we have at least an 8 mil cap hit each year from just the bonus.

If the Ravens want to minimize the damage this year, at the expense of future years, they’ll need to keep his salary low to start and increase it every year for the length of a 5 year deal.

According to Spotrac, a phenomenal website devoted to team salaries, the Ravens are projected to have a cap number of 106 before Flacco is brought on board, as well as any other free agents and UFAs. Add in the 8 mil to start, and we’re at 114 give or take. If we assume the cap number as 123 (still a large assumption), we have approximately 9 mil to work with.

Now to look at other situations connected to this, ie the top free agents for the Ravens – Dannell Ellerbe and Ed Reed. With Reed we have a stronger understanding of his value. He considers himself the best safety in the NFL, though will likely not seek a salary that high. Polamalu currently receives the highest salary at 7.5, while Weddle just signed a contract with a 6 mil salary. Weddle got 13 million as a signing bonus which is 2.6 spread out of over 5 years. I’ll make the assumption that Reed won’t play 5 more years, so he’ll be looking for a deal 3 years or less. The Ravens can pay Reed a base of 1 mil with a 9 mil signing bonus, which would be about 4 million against the cap, which is means we’re down to 5 million left in the cap for Ellerbe and Flacco’s salary.

Ellerbe is tough to determine his value. I’m going to utilize Jameel McClain, who just signed a contract with the Ravens a last year and looks comparable in talent and production, and Desmond Bishop of Green Bay who seems to have a similar role and skill set.

McClain signed a 3 year 10.5 mil contract with 3.6 guaranteed, while Bishop signed a 4 year 19.5 mil contract with 3.2 signing bonus. Both of these are doable with some room left for free agents. If the Ravens really trust Ellerbe (questionable as he is reportedly hot and cold with Harbaugh), they can lock him up for 5 years 20 mil and a 4 mil signing bonus which would be a hit of 800 k a year plus salary. If they don’t it can be a 3 year deal similar to McClain’s, perhaps at 12 mil at 3.6 which would be 1.2 over 3 years.

Looking at the bigger hit, we have 3.8 million for Flacco and Ellerbe’s salary. Now we’re working on how much each wants in salary. If Flacco is willing to take less than Brees and sit at 2.8 while Ellerbe takes 1, the situation works well. If Flacco demands 3 or higher, then Ellerbe may need to settle for less (600 – 800 k).

Still, this shows that the Ravens can handle this contract without destroying some of their defensive chemistry and lock up their hall of fame safety for his career. If Ed is willing to shoot for less than he’s worth, it will open up even more doors for them, unfortunately they won’t know that until Flacco is locked up most likely, but with preliminary figures for what Linta is seeking, they can approach Ellerbe and Reed’s (eventual) agent with some speculative figures to gauge interest.

Combine Feedback: Medical

Thought I’d start a combine feedback section for stock ups and downs.

As anyone who watches the combine coverage, or the resulting news coverage knows, the combine is not that big a deal to NFL executives.

These guys spend months working on developing their boards, which are likely 90% finished by the time the combine hits. The combine’s biggest features are the interviews, the positional skill drills, and the medical results. In that respect teams get to meet the players and spend some real-time with them, watch for any anomalies in the skill drills, and get a very, very in-depth look at medical notes.

Look at defensive tackle Star Lotulelei and defensive end / outside linebacker Jarvis Jones.

In Lotulelei’s case, medical results picked up an irregular heart condition. He was pulled from working out at the combine in order to receive more tests. Now the immediate coverage was very pessimistic about his stock, and rightly so. This could potentially be a serious condition, but after additional tests they’re opptimistic that the result at the combine could have developed from a number of other factors (including dramatic weight loss as Lotulelei apparently lost ten pounds in the week before the combine. His stock is currently all over the place. He’ll continue to do evaluations and has been cleared to work out, but teams are definitely going to keep an eye on his evaluations. Until they can determine what the exact reason for his condition is, teams will definitely be on the cautious side. I would expect that he is out of the top ten without a medical clearance.

In Jarvis Jones’ case, the same issues that kept him from attending USC are popping up again. Jones has a stenosis, which is a narrowing of the spinal column. Most reports indicate that Jones’ spine has not worsened since ’09. While this is good news, there may not be a more strict process for talent evaluation than the NFL Draft. Spending millions on a player who can’t stay healthy is a major no-no for NFL owners and GM’s looking to keep their job.

Media members have reported that multiple teams have both removed him and cleared him on their boards. Let me put an example out there for Jarvis Jones’ case. Rob Gronkowski entered the draft as a physical specimen. 6’6″, 258 Tight end with 4.62 speed, and that was after dropping some weight. He’s a mismatch nightmare, but the Patriots don’t take him til the 2nd round. The reason being he lost his ’09 season due to a back injury before entering the draft. Reports are that the Baltimore Ravens removed him from their board for medical reasons, while the Patriots cleared him. He’s still ultra talented, but has continued to find the injury bug.

Jarvis Jones has plenty of talent and all he needs is a team to love that potential to draft him. The good combine report is a good step in that direction for getting that partner in the draft.

Those two are the major news on medical concerns coming out of the combine. Next we’ll look at some positional drill results.

2012 All-Pro Team As Voted by NFL Am

Here’s our All Pro selections this season:

Quarterback – Tom Brady, New England Patriots

I get the argument for Peyton Manning because he had such a great season, and even for Aaron Rodgers because of how he is that offense, but Brady was simply unstoppable down the stretch. This offense is the best of the best in the NFL.

Running back – Adrian Peterson, Minnesota

There’s no argument here that could be made for anyone else. He came 9 yards short of the all time record and had perhaps the greatest single running season ever despite missing that record. Coming of an ACL tear this is simply the Year of Adrian.

Full back – Vonta Leach, Baltimore

The full back is so under-valued and used in the NFL that there’s not a lot of options here. Watching Leach blow up linebackers, and sometimes defensive linemen is a joy to watch for any old school fan and is part of the reason the Ravens still manage to run a bit behind old man Matt Birk.

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson, Detroit // A.J. Green, Cincinnati

Despite the AP, this should have been unanimous. Calvin dragged the Lions to every win they got and makes that team a constant threat. Often without help from a run game, defense, quarterback, or additional passing threats. He makes Ryan Broyles, Nate Burleson, and Titus Young look good. Green, meanwhile, makes Dalton look good. These two receivers are easily the best jump ball receivers (with Larry Fitzgerald) and know how to get open in clutch time.

Tight End: Jason Witten, Dallas

He set a record for receptions, played through life threatening injuries, and generally makes Tony Romo look competent. Witten has been finding holes and seams in defenses for years now and deserves recognition for how much he does for this offense and team. Witten is the cog here, not Murray, Bryant or Austin.

Flex: Andre Johnson, Houston

The Offensive Flex is our way of recognizing that the NFL is evolving. We’re reserving it for the best player of a RB, TE, or WR variety beyond the traditional formation. Andre Johnson is basically the only thing keeping Houston from being the Vikings. Sure they can run the ball, but if you cannot keep a defense honest it can only take you so far (as far as Adrian takes them essential, or Foster in this situation). Johnson makes sure 8 man boxes aren’t a constant.

Offensive Tackles: Joe Thomas, Cleveland // Ryan Clady, Denver

These two have been on this list for a long time. Thomas is everything Jake Long has not been – consistent, dominant and reliable. Clady, meanwhile, kept a very busted up Peyton from re-injuring himself or furthering any nerve damage. He also led a very solid rushing attack, which goes for Thomas as well.

Offensive Guard: Marshal Yanda, Baltimore // Jahri Evans, New Orleans

Evans is a more traditional guard, dominating defensive tackles and getting to the second level. Their run game is what it is because of Evans. Yanda is simply the most important lineman for the Ravens. He keeps the line in tact, is scheme versatile, and dominate in both run and pass. These two are the best in the business, with Mike Iupati and Logan Mankins right behind them.

Center: Maurkice Pouncey, Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh basically has one reliable player on that offensive line currently (with Adams, DeCastro up and coming). Very much like Yanda, Pouncey does a lot of things for this line that are invaluable. Nod goes to him ahead of Unger because Pouncey is working with a fluctuating line and less talent.

———————-

Defensive End: J.J. Watt, Houston // Justin Smith, San Francisco

Watt is the defensive player of the year because he is dominant against both run and pass. Imagine counting knockdowns with sacks as basically the ball does not advance the line of scrimmage and Watt has 20.5 Sacks and 16 PD. That is at minimum 37 pass plays that resulted in 0 or less yards. It doesn’t factor in his disruption on the run (Rotoworld gives him 56 defeats in the run game), nor how much free runs he allows other players. Justin Smith is like Haloti Ngata, a hybrid DT/DE who we’ll put here for his versatility and what he does with the freedom Aldon Smith gives him, and freedom he gives Aldon Smith. The two of them make that defense very tough to defend.

Defensive Tackle: Geno Atkins, Cincinnati
Nose Tackle: Vince Wilfork, New England

With the rise of the 3-4, we’ll be specifically highlighting the nose tackle, which is also valuable in the 4-3 but less critical. Wilfork was explosive this season, completely destroying many vaunted rushing attacks by himself. Anyone looking to be a nose tackle needs only look at how he plays. Atkins dominated out of a 4-3, providing solid pass rush up the middle and shutting down the run impressively. He makes both their ends look a lot better than they perhaps actually are.

Outside Linebacker: Von Miller, Denver // Aldon Smith, San Francisco

These two guys are going to be going at it for years to come. They are both elite pass rushers from different schemes. Miller’s bend on the outside is impossible. I thought Ware’s was preposterous, and Miller can get even lower. Smith is a bonafide beast as a stand up linebacker. He’s solid in coverage, but really shines pushing tackles around left and right. Both these guys provide a ton of one-on-one match-ups for the rest of their players.

Inside Linebacker: Patrick Willis, San Francisco

With Ray Lewis retiring this year, Willis has already aptly taken his spot as best linebacker in the NFL. The man is ferocious against the run and one of the few elite pass covering linebackers. Doesn’t hurt to be behind such an elite defensive line and have such help as Smith and Bowman standing up with him.

Flex: Cameron Wake, Miami

The defensive flex position is for the best front seven player, recognizing that diverse schemes mean different positions are on the field for different teams. Cameron Wake is a premiere pass rusher, stuck in a declining defense. He didn’t beat out Smith or Miller, but provides that defense a threat against opposing quarterbacks.

Cornerback: Charles Tillman, Chicago // Jonathan Joseph, Houston

Charles Tillman took the best receiver in the NFL, having one of his best seasons ever, and shut him down twice. If that doesn’t prove you are elite, nothing does. Meanwhile Joseph took a very weak pass defense and has made it a ton better. Throw out the Patriot game where everyone got burned (even though he was not awful there either) and you have a solid corner. I will say Joe Haden would have taken the second spot were he healthy.

Safety: Eric Weddle, San Diego // Earl Thomas, Seattle

Weddle has been long overdue, hidden behind Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. But with Polamalu being hurt most of the year and Reed having a remarkably mediocre year without any pass rush in front of him. Weddle is great in coverage, securing the back-end reliable. When Earl Thomas came out, I predicted Eric Berry would take the mantel of best Ball Hawk from Ed Reed, and Thomas would turn into more of a Polamalu style player. Instead Thomas has become a terror in the back. His ability to close on deep balls and his elite hands have ruined several quarterbacks afternoons.

Kicker: Kai Forbath, Washington

He didn’t start as their kicker, but was perfect once he did. As a rookie that’s impressive. He ended up 17 of 18 with more than half of his kicks coming 40+ yards. Honorable mentions to Blair Walsh in Minnesota for similar start, and Justin Tucker because of several game winning kicks.

Punter: Mike Scrifers, San Diego

Scifers was again elite, finishing 4th in total yards, 3rd in average, and 7th in kicks inside the 20. Andy Lee was a close second.

Return man: Jacoby Jones, Baltimore

For winning at least 2 games by himself and for a ridiculous number of return yards and scores. JJ was the best the NFL has seen since Hester’s impossible season.

 

NFL 2012 Predictions

Welcome to another NFL season. We’ll be trying to get this blog back up and running, and to start we’ll do a prediction page here. Belated I know, but we’re all busy with life, etc. Just be happy we got this together for you!

 

Standings:
AFC East:

1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins

This is a run away for the Pats this year. The Bills are improved, but I don’t trust Fitzpatrick still and offensively there isn’t enough firepower to surpass the Patriots, who look to be running the most sophisticated offense in the NFL again this year. The Jets will quickly devolve into a media circus as calls for Tebow distract the team, and Miami is not remotely close to winning this year. The only question will be the Patriots defense, which should be improved from last year.

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

This is a down year for what has been the toughest division in the NFL the last couple of years. The Ravens defense looks very, very old and the loss of defensive coordinator (now Indianapolis Head Coach) Chuck Pagano appears to be significant. While the defense is regressing, the offense looks poised to finally surpass the defense as the primary unit on this team and Flacco to Smith might be a fantasy sleeper combination. The Steelers, to their credit, tried to address the offensive line issues, but with DeCastro going down, it appears the same unit will run out there. Big Ben and the defense will keep them in games and they should have a winning record, but I see them struggling to make a wild card. Meanwhile the Bengals continue to improve their roster and the combination of AJ Green, Andy Dalton, and Jay Gruden appears set to challenge in this division. Meanwhile the Browns will continue to flounder behind a mediocre defense and lacking offensive weapon offense.

AFC West:

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

Peyton Manning should come in and sweep this division by storm. The Bronco defense is excellent and with improved offensive play they should have no problem coming up with a winning record (and isn’t that all you need in the AFC West?). The Chargers will compete for a wildcard, but Norv Turner continues to struggle to achieve expectations. The Raiders will depend on how Carson Palmer looks, while Pryor continues to impress behind him, and the Chiefs are dependent on Matt Cassel, who I don’t trust in the least.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Indianapolis Colts

The Texans are my Superbowl favorite currently. Their roster is stacked (although I would have kept Mario Williams), and their defense is elite. If Schuab can stay healthy, their offense has the weapons to be impressive. The Titans are a talented roster with a young quarterback. If Locker can be solid, and CJ2k returns to form, this is a team that can run with the best. If Locker looks like a rookie than their season is merely preparation for 2013. Jacksonville has looked better offensively in the preseason, but their defense has several holes in it. I see them making strides, and improving as the season goes, but not enough to challenge in this division. The Colts will work Andrew Luck in while setting their sights on next year. Their defense is going to undergo a major overhaul, and their offense is lacking in weapons.

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. New York Giants
3. Washington Redskins
4. Philadelphia Eagles

I think this is the best division in football this season (for once). The Superbowl champion Giants will be good again this year, but duplicating their passing success will be tough. Their defense still relies on constant 4 man pressure, which ebbs and flows throughout the season. The Cowboys, on the other hand, sound poised for a run this year. They won’t win the division by much, but their offense has had a year to click, and Rob Ryan finally has the corners to be more aggressive with his scheming. Washington should be wildly improved from last year, and with a defense as elite as their should be, I would expect them to challenge for this division. They’ll depend on their running game and Griffin’s maturity at the helm. The Eagles will rely on Vick to stay healthy and a defense to actually stand up to opposing offenses. All in all, these four teams should be within 3 games of each other top to bottom.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Minnesota Vikings

I’ll be blunt. The Bears scare the crap out of me. Their pass rush / Tampa 2 style defense is taking a more aggressive approach, and with very legitimate receivers their offense is perhaps the most dynamic in the NFL. The Packers return most of their starting offense but they’ll need to improve on defense to maintain their division crown. The Lions are very solid, but their lack of DB depth and offensive line / running game concerns should keep them out of the division talk. Their wild card hopes are alive and well however. The Vikings will continue to develop Ponder, but should keep Adrian’s workload to a minimum and prepare for next year as a big jump year. Their offensive line, and defense in particular need work.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams

I’ll go with the 49ers again this year due to their defense and the fact that they’ll be getting a lot of bad quarterbacks. Alex Smith should play better, but it will depend on how his receivers step up. The Seahawks spent a ton of money on Matt Flynn, with T-Jack already on the roster, and still go with the rookie Russell Wilson. All I’ve heard about Wilson sounds good, but I think a year on the bench wouldn’t have hurt him. The Seahawks have an underrated roster, but enough holes on offense to keep them out of the playoffs. The Cardinals will continue to flip-flop quarterbacks while their defense shakes their heads. The Rams are a wildcard, because if Bradford returns to form this can be a scary offense. Their defense has not improved enough to concern me and will hold them back.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Carolina Panthers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wow. Julio Jones is making the Falcons look smart in preseason. If he can continue that success, this team is scary good on offense. Their defense is getting old fast, however, and will be the concern going forwards. Cam Newton has the Panthers poised for a very successful year if he can continue to make progress as a passing quarterback. Their defense has some injury concerns, but should be better than last year and with that offense it might be enough to challenge for a wildcard. The Saints will either be very good, or struggle due to outside pressure. Sean Payton’s influence on the offense cannot be underestimated, but Drew Brees should keep them in the top part of the league. The defense will be solid, but it just doesn’t feel like the Saints year. The Bucs, meanwhile, will continue to retool this defense and develop Josh Freeman. They’ve improved enough to be a threat to all three other teams, but not enough for me to take them as a wildcard team.

 

MVP: Peyton Manning

He’ll return and take that team deep into the playoffs. His numbers probably won’t be as elite as they used to be, but as the season goes he should get better.

Offensive Player: Ray Rice

With Flacco stepping up, Rice should see more holes and fewer defenders. He’s already getting about 2000 yards a season, it’ll be scary to see what he does with a legitimate quarterback behind him.

Defensive Player: DeMarcus Ware

Ware is poised to explode in a new, aggressive system from Rob Ryan. Expect close to 20 sacks at minimum. JPP is a close second and Von Miller is third.

Offensive Rookie: Robert Griffin

I think Luck doesn’t have the weapons or defense to win this, while RG3 will have a lot to work with this year.

Defensive Rookie: Chandler Jones

The Patriots defense should be better and Jones is the pass rushing specialist on it.

 

 

Rumor Has It…. potential draft trades

A look at some teams that want to make moves and the possible moves they could make.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers move up to 3 to select Trent Richardson.

Tampa is a playoff caliber team, supposedly, and if they truly believe that they are close, making a small move like this could get them over the hump. I don’t believe it because their defense is full of holes currently and their running game wasn’t necessarily the problem last season. Still, Schiano is supposedly enamored with Richardson and wants a more ground and pound attack.

Jacksonville going….somewhere.

The Jags reportedly like Justin Blackmon and Fletcher Cox and Melvin Ingram.

They might need to move up for Blackmon, but could land Cox at 7. Ingram is reportedly the player they want, but feel its a bit early at 7 for him. Arizona would sacrifice a goat to get a hold of Michael Floyd, so if he gets to Jacksonville and the price is right they could make that move from 13.

 

Arizona wants Michael Floyd…. badly…

…And I’m not sure why. Floyd to me is another Larry Fitzgerald. Neither has deep speed and their roster isn’t exactly build with a lot of burners on it. Sure it can work, because it did with Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but to me it’s too much of the same. Still two dynamic receivers never hurt an offense.  7 might be too high to go, but if he gets to 10 or so, Arizona will make a play. I feel pretty confident about it.

 

Dallas Cowboys covet Mark Barron

Barron is a big time box safety that Dallas likes. Everyone says Dallas won’t get a shot at him where they are. If Buffalo truly likes a couple of offensive tackles (which is the rumor currently going around to contradict the Barron rumor that made sense to me and thus is going to screw my mock draft), they’ll look to trade down a couple of selections for a Martin or Glenn or Reiff (though they reportedly don’t like him as a tackle). Dallas might be willing to move up to 10 from 14 to secure Barron… if Tampa Bay doesn’t really like him to, which I’ve heard in passing.

 

Baltimore does not think this is a deep draft class. The Ravens believe they are close to a Superbowl

Those two factors usually mean a team is willing to shop some picks to maneuver up in a draft. The question becomes for whom? Dont’a Hightower might not make it to them at 29, so that is a logical option – particularly if they believe Pittsburgh wants him. Stephen Hill is another target they might like to add. Hill has been projected as high as Tennessee at 20, but most have him going to Cleveland or Houston. If Baltimore really likes the wide receiver from Georgia Tech, it might be a good year to make a move.

 

 

Happy draft day Everyone!